The projections in the U.S. government’s Annual Energy Outlook for 2015 (AEO2015) focus on the factors expected to shape the nation’s energy markets through 2040. The projections provide a basis for examination and discussion of energy market trends and serve as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in U.S. energy policies, rules, and regulations, as well as the potential role of advanced technologies.
The new report projects the following:
Growth in U.S. energy production combined with modest growth in demand will reduce U.S. reliance on imported energy supplies. Energy imports and exports will come into balance in the United States starting in 2028.
Slowing growth in domestic oil production after 2020 will be offset by increased vehicle fuel economy standards that limit growth in domestic demand.
The United States will transition from being a modest net importer of natural gas to a net exporter by 2017.
Growth in production of dry natural gas and natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) will contribute to the expansion of several manufacturing industries (such as bulk chemicals and primary metals)
Rising costs for electric power generation, transmission, and distribution, coupled with relatively slow growth of electricity demand, will produce an 18% increase in the average retail price of electricity by 2040.